Dev Tools · 2h ago
Why conformal prediction intervals blow up under log transform
A developer reports that after log-transforming target data, fitting a model, and applying conformal prediction, the back-transformed upper interval reaches 350x the point forecast. The back-transform is correct; the explosion stems from lognormal skew and inflated log-space scores due to small calibration sets. Coverage remains valid because monotone transforms preserve interval coverage exactly.
Meridian48 take
The 'bug' is actually a feature of convex transforms and small-sample variance, not a flaw in the conformal method.
Read the full reporting
Conformal intervals under a log transform: the blow-up isn't a back-transform bug →
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conformal-predictionlog-transform